Future-Proofing Flood Modelling: Overcoming the Six Biggest Challenges
- Alastair Sheppard
- Apr 18, 2023
- 5 min read
Updated: Feb 20
Adam Parkes, Technical Director for Flood Products at Jacobs
Introduction
Climate change is ramping up the need for faster, more detailed flood modelling, but six obstacles are slowing our progress. To overcome them, we need a combination of streamlined workflows, empowered talent and purposeful partnerships to integrate hydrological and hydraulic modelling for better results.
The Inflection Point in Flood Modelling
Flood modelling is at an inflection point. Thanks to the impact of climate change, our industry is scaling up the analysis we need to do, both in quantity and quality, to help protect communities and infrastructure across the globe. As the requirements on modellers grow, the amount of data produced becomes even more complex. This compounds the problem, meaning we’ll need to look at even more permutations and options, return periods, storm durations, and climate change predictions. We’re talking about more extensive data sets and higher pressure on processes, technology, and people.
We need more modellers, hydrologists and river engineers to meet the demands of flood risk management as it stands, and that demand is only getting exponentially bigger as climate change ratchets up. We’re also due significant innovation in tools and methods, especially within hydrology, as we’re still using methods broadly unchanged in 20 years. They’ve evolved along the way, but it’s time for a step change.
The question is: how do we move forward to ensure we meet this rising demand with accurate, timely results? In short, we need to fix the disconnect between hydraulics and hydrology and have broader integration across workstreams. We must empower the right people with the right tools to work more efficiently.
The good news? We’ve got brilliant talent and technology dedicated to this challenge. Even better, there’s a solution now available – one that integrates hydrological and hydraulic modelling for the first time to tackle these six obstacles.
The Six Biggest Obstacles to Faster, Scaled-Up Modelling
Siloed Software:
Key hydrology software has historically been licensed on a “per computer basis,” preventing flexible access to tools across teams. In the world of hybrid working, this stifles efficient working. It also has implications for quality. There’s a higher risk of making errors because it is disjointed, and you are double- or triple-handling the data. Specifically, there’s a risk in the crossover between disciplines. For example, if you’re a hydrologist and you hand your information over to a hydraulic modeller, a lot can be lost in translation between the two occupations. That results in higher risk and impacts the quality.
Solution:
Network licences and flexible, affordable access to software: Cloud licensing lets you share software across an organisation, ramping up collaboration and productivity, and driving quality assurance. It’s a smart move that saves costs and time and empowers the right people. It also minimises human error as there’s less sharing across different formats and spreadsheets.
Slow, Complicated Access to Accurate Historical Data:
This is an industry-wide problem. For example, suppose I need specific river data to understand certain river flows or the rainfall in a particular catchment. In that case, there are several different places I can find it, but it’s a time-consuming, admin-heavy task. You can’t just open a website and download it. You often have to request it from the organisation, which varies depending on the request; with requests often taking days to be processed. Once received, there’s no standardised way of storing and manipulating that data. Bottom line: it results in many inefficiencies.
Solution:
Instantaneous Access to Data in One Place: With many key datasets now accessible via APIs, we can access data directly in a consistent way, saving untold time and money. Practitioners can import data directly into their analysis and more effectively visualize the information. This eliminates the hassle of dealing with emails, CSV files, and incompatible formats, upgrading data gathering and management for greater reliability, accuracy, and ease of use. For hydrologists specifically, a library of recorded data would make analysis much easier and faster. Additionally, using a common data environment for hydrological information allows direct application of hydrology to models, avoiding the need for additional data handling.
Lack of Data Provenance and Longevity:
Often, you’ll have a hydraulic model, but it won’t have hydrology embedded within it. For example, you might know what flows are used to produce your flood outline, but not how those flows were derived. This lack of integration means all that embedded knowledge is lost, and you risk unnecessarily repeating studies. Additionally, updating with minor changes becomes problematic.
Solution:
Integrated Hydrological and Hydraulic Modelling: Hydrological and hydraulic analysis held in the same place, leveraging the hydrological database, facilitates rapid updates to hydrology and models. This reduces repetitive work and ensures the model lifecycle is recorded.
Complicated Workflows:
As a hydrologist, I constantly have to manipulate and handle data in different formats. I start with Excel because it’s the most commonly available tool, then process it and pass it into separate software for analysis. This inefficiency wastes time.
Solution:
Streamlined Workflows: You should be able to take your data straight into a hydrological analysis at the click of a button, removing the need for intermediary steps and bringing the data closer. You will still have ownership over your analysis, but we aim to avoid unnecessary searches and external processes.
Admin-Heavy Documentation Processes:
Our clients often ask for very detailed documents describing the hydrological analysis we’ve done, and these are challenging to generate. You copy reams of information from different software programs and spreadsheets into a complex document. There’s a high risk of transposing data incorrectly when copying and pasting or manually writing it up. If you need to revise your calculations, you’ll have to update everything in that document, adding even more risk.
Solution:
Inbuilt Automation: It’s a no-brainer. You don’t need to spend your limited time and energy creating reports manually. Instead, you can focus on applying your knowledge to provide better outcomes, with your proforma automatically populated and stored with your project data.
Repetitive, Time-Wasting Data-Handling Tasks:
The industry is growing quickly, presenting an increasing challenge in acquiring the right skills. Beyond hiring and training more people, it’s also a question of resource management. Our teammates shouldn’t spend so much time copying and pasting data between software and spreadsheets; they should be applying their knowledge. Early career colleagues shouldn’t be burdened with boring, repetitive work. We’d rather they focus on improving the analysis rather than wrangling text files.
Solution:
Empowered Resource Management: Less time on admin and repetitive tasks means better use of employee resources, allowing them to focus on more valuable work.
Building the Future of Flood Modelling Together
We’re shaping the future of flood modelling through innovation and collaboration. Our clients’ demands for more complex, detailed, and challenging analysis drive us to continually innovate and iterate. As our industry evolves, so too will the technology that supports it. One key factor that will accelerate this progress is collaboration.
Flood Modeller’s Hydrology+ is at the forefront of this evolution, streamlining the integration of hydrological and hydraulic analysis. This not only reduces costs but also ensures a transparent audit trail and synchronization across hydrological and hydraulic modelling disciplines and workflows.
Thanks to our exclusive collaboration with Wallingford HydroSolutions, the integration of their UK industry-standard WINFAP and ReFH2 hydrological packages with Flood Modeller introduces significantly enhanced flexibility and time-saving benefits for both hydrologists and hydraulic modellers.
Together, we are building a more efficient, innovative, and collaborative future for flood modelling.
Adam Parkes
Adam is the Technical Director for Flood Products at Jacobs. He is a chartered scientist with 20 years' experience in hydrology and hydraulic modelling, working across a broad range of flood risk and water management projects. He provides technical leadership for flood risk management projects, including mapping, appraisal and scheme design, alongside a wide range of related projects, including asset inspection, reservoir design, urban flooding, data capture and management.
